Great American Bash Predix

So I did make GAB predictions on the IN THIS VERY RING podcast earlier this week, but I figured I'd put them in writing. Just a couple quick notes before beginning though. One: I'm too lazy to go back and listen to what my predictions were Wednesday, so my predictions here might not be consistent. If so, and if you're keeping score as I do, go with these ones, as they reflect how I feel two hours out from bell-time. And 2: while many insider sites have stated this week that Matt Hardy vs. Shelton Benjamin for the US Title has been placed on the card as a last minute addition. I'm going by the official match list provided on wwe.com, which as of 6pm the day of did not include this match. If it was an omission on the official site however, and this match happens, I'm actually predicting a Shelton Benjamin surprise win, freeing up Matt to pursue the ECW title. Now on to the rest of the card.

WWE Championship Match: Triple H (c) vs. Edge: This is probably 'match of the night' from the perspective of most star power in one match. In terms of having the company's top face vs. the company's top heel, this should be the final match of the night - if it should be airing tonight at all. I stand by what I said on ITVR Wednesday - this feud has been hotshotted, while it should have at least been held for Summerslam (one of the WWE's original 'Big Four' quarterly PPVs - including Wrestlemania, Survivor Series, and Royal Rumble - which are traditionally bigger than the other monthly offerings), if not Wrestlemania. Adding to my dismay at that, the build has been awful; I think Triple H's interruption of Edge's wedding this week was the first time I've seen them interact since this match was announced. I guess I can understand them going with this one fairly quickly - there aren't really any other legit challengers to Trips' title on SD unless they put him in a mini-program with Umaga - but at least give it the build a potential (and probably future) Wrestlemania main event deserves. These are the two biggest names in your company right now, period - treat them as such. End of rant.

Prediction: Oh right ... going with "H" for the win here, because title changes usually essentially=blowoffs, unless the prerequisite rematch is really compelling, and I think this feud is just beginning. That's my one consolation as to the lousy build with this match - perhaps this match itself is the build to a larger feud, culminating at Summerslam. As such, if this match goes on last (ie, as THE main draw of the night), and builds to a continued feud, perhaps it can salvage itself, which I think it will. Edge has won too many titles in the last couple of years for too short lengths of time, and H hasn't been champ that long. My bet is H wins, leading to at least two rematches, one featuring TLC (Edge's specialty) and one featuring Hell in a Cell (Trips'). In that case, the last few weeks and the speed of this feud can be forgiven. And I DO want to make clear, for all my anger at how this feud is being treated, it's BECAUSE I anticipate it being great. As such, this is one of the matches I'm looking most forward to tonight: these are two of my favourite performers, and regardless of the lousy build and hotshotted feud, it should be a great match between two of the biggest stars in the sport today. Let's get it on.

World Heavyweight Title Match: CM Punk (c) vs. Batista: This should be an interesting match, as they've been playing CM Punk as the flukey champion looking to establish his legitimacy, and that he should be taken seriously. What I'm looking to see here, is whether this is a continuation of the flukey-ness, or whether this is the start of his build as a serious champ. Perhaps not as compelling a match between such big names as the Smackdown offering (and when was the last time that could be said for the Raw main event, which usually closes out every show?), but interesting nonetheless to see where they go with it.

Prediction: Punk will retain the belt. What is harder to predict is what I said before - whether it will be in a strong manner, such as a pinfall or submission situation over Batista, or whether it will continue his 'lucky' streak, by being a countout/disqualification situation (which either of them could win, leaving Punk as champ), or involving outside interference of some kind (perhaps from Randy Orton?). Three weeks as a flukey-seeming champ, however, I think is enough, and going much further will put Punk into Rey Mysterio territory of looking like a weak champ. A solid win here could put him more on the track of the man I like to compare him to - Bret Hart, the small, unexpected, but surprisingly talented and tenacious champ who creates a pleasantly surprising legacy out of a very dark and confusing time in WWE's history. It's all about how behind the "Punk Experiment" WWE is. And that remains to be seen.

ECW Championship Match: Mark Henry vs. Tommy Dreamer: One that is easy to predict, yet shouldn't be at the same time. Mark Henry should not be a longterm champion by any stretch - he's not that talented, and he was given the title as a consolation prize due to racial slurs thrown at him by a WWE official. Tommy Dreamer is an ECW original who the fans love and who represents what ECW is supposed to be - respect for the business, which WWE has been showing more of lately, by and large. However ...

Prediction: WWE has never gotten behind Dreamer, and Henry has stepped up his game bigtime since winning the title and heading over to ECW. He's one of, if not the, best talker there, has wrestling legend Tony Atlas in his corner, and WWE has never EVER gotten behind Tommy Dreamer as a wrestler - albeit he is a strong road agent and office representative on the road. Henry retains, and it's on to Matt Hardy.

WWE Tag Team Championship Fatal 4-Way: John Morrison and the Miz (c) vs. Finlay and Hornswoggle vs. Ryder and Hawkins vs. Jesse and Festus: Glad to see the tag titles defended on pay-per-view. Smackdown actually has a respectable tag division right now, and I wish the same could be seen over on Raw, where the tag champs - who as two young, hot, bright young guys should be out there front and centre every show - are sadly underexposed. I hate the 4-way stip, especially when the tag champs have beaten every one of their challengers in recent weeks. Their only loss has been to the reunited Hardy brothers - why not defend against them?

Prediction: This is actually a tough one, since each of these teams with the possible exception of Finlay and Hornswoggle has gotten a push of late. My first instinct is to say the champs remain the champs as they're pretty strong, but the other two teams are as well, and they're on SD while Miz and Morrison are on ECW. So I'll say the champs retain, but this is probably my least confident prediction - as a second choice, I'm going with Ryder and Hawkins.

Parking Lot Brawl: John Cena vs John B. Layfield: I WAS looking forward to this match between two of the best brawlers in the business - it plays to both their strengths, and can make these two guys who have been treading water of late come out looking stronger and more like the legitimate contenders they are again. But then the nonsense of the 'attempted vehicular homicide' perpetrated by JBL on Cena Monday night went down, and turned this into an action movie special effects show, and not wrestling. WWE is supposed to exist in its own world with its own rules; but when they cross into our world by toying with those rules - Brian Pillman's attempting to shoot Steve Austin; Vince McMahon's 'death' - WWE makes it very difficult to indulge in the required suspension of disbelief to make their one-ring circus act viable. Not to mention it throws so much cold water on the works, it's no longer the 'escape' it should be, fulfilling Vince McMahon's self-professed mandate to 'entertain and put smiles on people's faces'.

Prediction: I still expect this to be a decent match, as both of these guys are brawlers. As long as they don't try to get too fancy or 'Hollywood'-like with the SFX, let it be meat and potatoes smashing each other, it should still be a great match which Cena will come out of on top: JBL is an older wrestler whose best days are behind him, and is more bound for managing and commentating sooner than later; Cena is still WWE's franchise player, the heir apparent to Triple H's crown, with at least 5-10 years left in his prime. He's the bigger investment, he will be protected here in the blowoff match of their three-month-long feud.

Shawn Michaels vs. Chris Jericho: If Triple H vs. Edge is overall 'match of the night', this will be the match of the night from the pure wrestling standpoint. These men have told a tremendous story over the past few months; they've shown us what they can do on the mic and it's now time to show us what they can do in the ring. We've been here before, and know they can do tremendous things. This is a battle for 'king of the upper-midcard' - who will be in Intercontintental Title contention, and who will end up spending more time elevating younger talent - but these two men have made it so much more, and have made it SEEM so much more important than it actually is. This has been the #1 angle on Raw for months, and perhaps in the WWE period, and a definite early candidate for feud of the year. I don't see it getting topped, and I anticipate a match of the year candidate to accompany the leadup.

Prediction: If this is the blowoff - which I don't entirely expect it to be - Shawn will get his vindication and win. More likely, Jericho will win in a heelish manner, with Lance Cade finally getting involved as more than Jericho's cornerman. Anticipate Kofi Kingston being thrown under the bus in coming weeks, as these two end up fighting for higher stakes - the IC belt - at Summerslam. And as Kofi has years ahead of him to get back on his horse, while these are two of my favourites who I think deserve more than they've gotten in recent years (even though they've both 'been there, done that' in the past), I don't even have the problem with that I otherwise might have!

WWE Divas Championship Match: Natalya Neidhart vs. Michelle McCool: Smackdown's answer to the Women's title - personally I think there should just be one, and all the girls should fight for it, as there is actually a fair bit of legitimate wrestling talent in the women's division at this point, it's just divided two thinly over the two brands. There's no champion yet as they're crowning the inaugural champ tonight.

Prediction: I anticipate this match being better than it looks on paper, as Michelle has busted her butt to become a passable wrestler in the ring, and Natalya is probably the most talented women's wrestler to come along in years. I'm figuring Natalya will win, but that this is not over. Look for Michelle to end up with the title so she can also feud with Victoria over it; and look for a Natalya or Victoria face turn as well, seeing as they're the two Smackdown ladies who can REALLY wrestle, and both are heels. I hope, despite the brand split between the two, that Natalya's winning tonight, and Beth Phoenix's quasi-face turn this week against Santino Marella on Raw, is perhaps the early seeds being sown for what I hope will be WM 25's women's offering. Even if not though, Nattie wins. You go girl!

*So that's it!* Tomorrow I will post my thoughts on the PPV, and Tuesday will see my Raw review as usual. Obviously Ari and I will be discussing both shows and a host of other things in depth on Wednesday on our podcast, but I nonetheless want to put some thoughts down in writing before then so this blog doesn't just become a 'Check out ITVR' shill. Either way, stay tuned as it should be a busy week, as all PPV weeks are - there should be PLENTY to talk about on Wednesday, and all week long ... In This Very Ring.